In 2021, the absolute amount of natural rubber in the world will remain high. According to the data, in May, the total domestic production of the members of the association of natural rubber producing countries reached 834200 tons, up 8.24% from 770700 tons in the same period last year, and down 1.14% from the average in recent five years. From January to may, the total output of member countries reached 4.0535 million tons, a slight increase of 3.82% compared with 3.9043 million tons in the same period of last year, and a decrease of 4.30% compared with the average of 4.2358 million tons in recent five years.
data Compared with the average output of 843800 tons in May, it increased by 5.33%, 22.90%, 24.58%, 26.51%, 28.50%, 33.98% and 24.38% respectively. In the absence of extreme weather and large-scale spread of the epidemic in Southeast Asian countries, it is difficult to curb the monthly growth momentum of domestic rubber production from June to December this year.
In the past five years, it is estimated that from June to December 2021, the rubber production of member countries will reach 878700 tons, 1025200 tons, 1039200 tons, 1055300 tons, 1071900 tons, 1117700 tons and 1037600 tons respectively, showing a trend of gradually increasing supply pressure. It is estimated that in 2021, the total output of natural rubber in member countries of the association of natural rubber producing countries is expected to reach 11.2791 million tons, a slight decrease of 2.3% compared with the average output of 11.5446 million tons in the past five years. It is estimated that the domestic output of the members of the association of natural rubber producing countries will be 11-11.2 million tons in 2021.
Recently, domestic tire manufacturers haven't seen a significant improvement in shipment, and finished product inventory is still growing passively. The reason behind the weakening of tire industry prosperity is that the sales volume of terminal vehicle market has declined significantly month on month. data In May, the production and sales of new cars in China also decreased by 8.7% and 5.5% month on month respectively, and by 6.8% and 3.1% year on year respectively.
From the production and sales of passenger cars, we can see that this year's car production and sales are lower than the same period of previous years, mainly due to the shortage of chips, and the automobile, mobile phone and other related industries have been hit hard; Daimler Foton said it will cut the working hours of up to 18500 employees and temporarily suspend production in two German factories as the shortage of semiconductor chips impacts global automobile production. report
At present, the impact of the increase of natural rubber supply on the price has begun to materialize. In the past two weeks, the contract price of ru2109 has fallen below 13000 points. In the short term, the price has not shown signs of stabilizing. We believe that natural rubber has not been fully released, and there is still room for improvement after the precipitation weakens; In July, with the increase of temperature, tire consumption will enter the peak season. At present, from the aspects of natural rubber bonded zone inventory, factory finished product inventory and market "bottom hunting" sentiment, the market pays more attention to entering the peak season of natural rubber consumption in the third quarter;
Export The use of retreaded tires has increased, so it remains to be seen whether there will continue to be an obvious peak season of tire consumption in the third quarter and whether tire consumption can be transmitted to upstream rubber consumption;
From the fundamental point of view, with the opening of the main production areas in the south, Thailand has gradually entered the period of increasing production. The recent decline of the market has reflected the negative impact of increasing supply, so we need to continue to pay attention to the weather conditions in the production areas; In the short term, the demand side needs to wait for the sea freight to slow down. It is expected that the sea freight will slow down in July and August. At that time, the export of rubber products will improve, the inventory of finished products and finished products will decline, and the price of rubber is expected to stabilize and recover.
In the future, the global liquidity tightening is expected to gradually increase. At the same time, the supply and demand side of the rubber market is also facing the risk of continuous weakening. It is expected that the futures price of Shanghai Rubber 2109 contract will remain weak in the future, and the road to the bottom is not over. Since June, under the background of continuous weakening of supply and demand, the price center of Shanghai rubber has been moving downward. Among them, 2109 contract dropped from 13400-13500 yuan / ton to 12515 yuan / ton on Tuesday, a new low since October last year.
Although it stopped falling and stabilized on June 16, it failed to change the downward trend. The logic behind this lies in: on the one hand, the domestic and Southeast Asian production areas ushered in the tapping season, and the potential supply pressure increased. Although there are disturbance factors such as epidemic situation and climate, the seasonal trend can not be changed. On the other hand, with the arrival of domestic car market and tire off-season, the demand for rubber is significantly weakened, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the road to the bottom of rubber price is long and difficult.
Last week, the price of natural rubber for short positions went down. In the middle of the week, the price of natural rubber for short positions was tested for many times, and a breakthrough was formed on Thursday. Export data The replacement market is also relatively sluggish. From May to June, the domestic transport market is not very prosperous, and the freight has been declining continuously, showing a situation of more cars and less goods. There is only some support in the supply side, the overall growth rate of supply is lower than expected, but it is in the production cycle, and the market pressure is gradually increasing. In this fundamental, the price of rubber is expected to be weak in the short term.
The main rubber contract ru21096 closed above 12700 yuan / ton on 17 June, and continued to be suppressed below the 20 day moving average. Since it fell below the important support level of 13600 yuan / ton, the rubber price continued to maintain the short trend after peaking at 17320 yuan, and the area around 13000 yuan became an important long short watershed. If it could not return to above 13000 in the later period, the short companies would have the momentum to continue to make efforts. Therefore, long traders still need to keep moderate patience and wait for the right signal. Short traders can take advantage of the oversold status of the market to reduce their positions appropriately, and it is not easy to continue to add short orders. Affected by the sluggish auto sales, it is difficult for rubber to have a large multi force base in the short term, and it is a high probability event to continue to weaken unless the global economy recovers and consumption rises.
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